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UK PROFESSIONAL ADVISERS – IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION
THIS AREA OF THE WEBSITE IS INTENDED FOR UK PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS. IT IS NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY MEMBERS OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC. FOR INFORMATION ON PRODUCTS AVAILABLE TO MEMBERS OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC, PLEASE REFER TO THE RETAIL INVESTORS SECTION OF THIS WEBSITE.
I CONFIRM THAT I AM A PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR, HAVE READ THE IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND WISH TO PROCEED
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
You must read this before proceeding, as it explains both the legal and regulatory restrictions which apply to the information contained and investment products referred to within this Website.
This Website is directed only at individuals resident within the United Kingdom and the information provided is not for distribution outside the United Kingdom. None of the information, whether in part or full, should be copied, reproduced or redistributed in any form nor should it be regarded as an offer or a solicitation of an offer for investment in countries outside the United Kingdom. No shares or units in these products or funds may be offered or sold to US Persons (as more fully defined in the latest Fund prospectus) or in any other country, state or jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to offer, solicit an offer for or sell such shares or units.
The information on this Website is issued and approved by Franklin Templeton Investment Management Limited and does not, in any way, constitute investment advice. Franklin Templeton Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
This site uses cookies to improve your online experience. Sites like ours store small text files on your computer when you visit. We use this information to monitor traffic and look for ways to improve the services we offer at www.temit.co.uk. The cookies we use don't include any information about your personal identity or your accounts. Your browser must accept at least a session cookie to use all the features on this site. For instructions on disabling these files, please visit our cookie policy. By closing this message, you consent to our use of cookies on this site.
The prices of shares and units and income there from can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance not an indicator, nor a guarantee of future performance. Currency fluctuations may affect the value of overseas investments. When investing in a fund denominated in a foreign currency, performance may also be affected by currency fluctuations. Where a fund invests in derivative instruments, this entails specific risks that may increase the risk profile of the fund and are more fully described in the TEMIT audited annual report. Where a fund invests in a specific sector or geographical area, the returns may be more volatile than a more diversified fund. Emerging Markets can be more risky than developed markets.
Subscriptions for shares or units in any Franklin Templeton Investments product or fund can be made only on the basis of the latest available audited annual report and the latest semi-annual report if published thereafter (or other offering document) for that product or fund which more fully describes the investment risks.
This website is intended to be of general interest only and does not constitute legal or tax advice nor is it an offer for shares or invitation to apply for shares of any of Franklin Templeton Investments’ fund ranges. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment advice. Franklin Templeton Investments has exercised professional care and diligence in the collection of information in this website. However, data from third party sources may have been used in its preparation and Franklin Templeton Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Opinions expressed are the author’s at the publication date and they are subject to change without prior notice. Given the rapidly changing market environment, Franklin Templeton Investments disclaim responsibility for updating this material. Any research and analysis contained in this website has been procured by Franklin Templeton Investments for its own purposes and is provided to you only incidentally. Franklin Templeton Investments shall not be liable to any user of this website or to any other person or entity for the inaccuracy of information or any errors or omissions in its contents, regardless of the cause of such inaccuracy, error or omission.
Portfolio Holdings for Non-US Funds/Non-US Advisers - From time to time Franklin Templeton Resources Inc (FRI) and its subsidiaries, partnerships, joint ventures and related and affiliated business entities (“FTI”) may provide you with a partial listing of portfolio securities including but not limited to top contributors and detractors to portfolio performance owned by one or more non-US domiciled funds that are registered or passported with local regulatory authorities and are sponsored by FTI (each a “Fund” and together “Funds”) and any such additional information relating to the Fund(s) that may not otherwise be publicly disseminated. Such listing of portfolio securities and any other non-public information is subject to the following terms and conditions below and is herein referred to as “Holdings Information”.
You are an authorised representative of a bank, broker-dealer, insurance company, registered investment adviser or other professional client (together, “Financial Institutions”) engaged in business activities outside the United States (a “Non-US Adviser”) and the Financial Institution has authorised you to access and use the Holdings Information. You are deemed to have read, understood and accepted the terms and conditions and you further agree that all provisions of this Agreement are equally binding upon you and the Financial Institution. IF YOU ARE NOT AUTHORISED TO ACCESS HOLDINGS INFORMATION OR YOU DO NOT WANT TO BE BOUND BY THE TERMS OF THIS AGREEMENT YOU SHOULD NOT ACCEPT HOLDINGS INFORMATION.
You undertake to keep the Holdings Information strictly confidential, regardless of the Holdings Information form or whether the Holdings Information is marked or identified as proprietary or confidential. You also agree not to disclose or disseminate the Holdings Information to any third party and to treat the Holdings Information as nonpublic and proprietary, and you further acknowledge that the Holdings Information constitutes a valuable asset of FTI, the Funds and Fund shareholders. You recognise that adverse consequences may result for Fund shareholders if the Holdings Information is used for inappropriate trading purposes. In addition, FTI may reasonably request that you make available to FTI all research produced on the Funds.
You will not:
Purchase or sell any portfolio securities listed in the Holdings Information on the basis of any information contained in Holdings Information;
Trade against the Funds or knowingly engage in any trading practices that are adverse to FTI or the Funds on the basis of the Holdings Information; and
Trade in shares of any US registered investment company sponsored by FTI that is substantially similar to the Fund.
You will use your best efforts to take all appropriate action and otherwise satisfy your obligations under this Agreement and to prevent the misuse of the Holdings Information. You will immediately notify FTI if you learn of any use of the Holdings Information by any employees, agents or clients that would otherwise violate this Agreement. You acknowledge that damages alone would not be an adequate remedy for any breach of the provisions of this Agreement and, accordingly, without prejudice to any and all other rights or remedies, you acknowledge that FTI or any Fund or F-T Fund to which the Holdings Information pertains shall be entitled to the remedies of injunction, specific performance and other equitable relief for any threatened or actual breach of the provisions of this Agreement.
You shall not be bound by the provisions of confidentiality contained in this Agreement if such Holdings Information 1) is or becomes publicly known through no act or omission of the Financial Institution, its employees, agents or subcontractors; 2) is lawfully disclosed to you by a third party without restriction and without any obligation of confidentiality; 3) is required to be disclosed by any Governmental body, regulatory body (including without limitation any relevant securities exchange) or court of competent jurisdiction or otherwise pursuant to any statutory or regulatory obligation.
The Agreement shall remain in effect for so long as you access the Holdings Information from FTI. FT may terminate this Agreement immediately if this Agreement conflicts with any laws, rules or relevant regulatory interpretations. Upon termination, you shall continue to take reasonable measures to prevent the disclosure or dissemination of the Holdings Information. You acknowledge that the Holdings Information may be utilised for damaging purposes, such as duplicating FTI’s proprietary investment and trading strategies, techniques and methodologies. As a result, your nondisclosure obligations and the prohibition on your dissemination of the Holdings Information to any third party shall survive this Agreement’s termination. To the extent of any conflict between this Agreement and any other agreement between you and FTI, then this Agreement shall be deemed to constitute an amendment to such other agreement
This Agreement may not be assigned by you, and you may not delegate its duties hereunder, without the prior written consent of FTI. All of the terms and provisions contained herein shall inure to the benefit of and shall be binding upon the parties hereto and their respective heirs, successors and assigns. Nothing contained in this Agreement shall be construed as creating any obligation or any expectation on the part of either party to enter into a business relationship with the other party, or an obligation to refrain from entering into a business relationship with any third party.
Nothing contained in this Agreement shall be construed as creating a joint venture, partnership or employment relationship between the parties, it being understood that the parties are independent contractors vis-à-vis one another. Except as specified herein, no party shall have the right, power or implied authority to create any obligation or duty, express or implied, on behalf of any other party hereto.
YOU SHALL INDEMNIFY AND HOLD ANY AND ALL FTI PERSONS HARMLESS AGAINST ANY AND ALL COSTS, EXPENSES, LOSSES, LIABILITIES, OBLIGATIONS, DAMAGES, PENALTIES TO WHICH ANY SUCH PARTY MAY BECOME SUBJECT INCLUDING REASONABLE LEGAL AND OTHER SUCH PROFESSIONAL FEES INCURRED IN INVESTIGATING AND DEFENDING OR APPEALING PENDING OR THREATENED CLAIMS, ACTIONS, SUITS, PROCEEDINGS, ARBITRATIONS, AMOUNTS PAID IN SETTLEMENT THEREOF (COLLECTIVELY “EXPENSES”) DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY ARISING OUT OF OR RELATING TO ANY BREACH OF THIS AGREEMENT SAVE WHERE SUCH EXPENSES RESULTED DIRECTLY FROM OUR GROSS NEGLIGENCE, FRAUD OR WILFUL MISCONDUCT.
The Agreement: (i) may be modified or supplemented by FTI at anytime upon reasonable notice to You; (ii) shall be binding upon and inure to the benefit of the successors and assigns of FTI and You; and (iii) shall be governed and construed in accordance with the laws of the United Kingdom.
Please read the Terms of Use Agreement and indicate your acceptance.
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Institutional Investor Terms & Conditions
UK INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS - IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION
THIS AREA OF THE WEBSITE IS INTENDED FOR UK INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS. IT IS NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY MEMBERS OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC. FOR INFORMATION ON PRODUCTS AVAILABLE TO MEMBERS OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC, PLEASE REFER TO THE RETAIL INVESTORS SECTION OF THIS WEBSITE.
I CONFIRM THAT I AM A PROFESSIONAL INVESTOR, HAVE READ THE IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND WISH TO PROCEED
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
You must read this before proceeding, as it explains both the legal and regulatory restrictions which apply to the information contained and investment products referred to within this Website.
This Website is directed only at individuals resident within the United Kingdom and the information provided is not for distribution outside the United Kingdom. None of the information, whether in part or full, should be copied, reproduced or redistributed in any form nor should it be regarded as an offer or a solicitation of an offer for investment in countries outside the United Kingdom. No shares or units in these products or funds may be offered or sold to US Persons (as more fully defined in the latest Fund prospectus) or in any other country, state or jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to offer, solicit an offer for or sell such shares or units.
The information on this Website is issued and approved by Franklin Templeton Investment Management Limited and does not, in any way, constitute investment advice. Franklin Templeton Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
This site uses cookies to improve your online experience. Sites like ours store small text files on your computer when you visit. We use this information to monitor traffic and look for ways to improve the services we offer at www.temit.co.uk. The cookies we use don't include any information about your personal identity or your accounts. Your browser must accept at least a session cookie to use all the features on this site. For instructions on disabling these files, please visit our cookie policy. By closing this message, you consent to our use of cookies on this site.
The prices of shares and units and income there from can go down as well as up, and you may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance not an indicator, nor a guarantee of future performance. Currency fluctuations may affect the value of overseas investments. When investing in a fund denominated in a foreign currency, performance may also be affected by currency fluctuations. Where a fund invests in derivative instruments, this entails specific risks that may increase the risk profile of the fund and are more fully described in the TEMIT audited annual report. Where a fund invests in a specific sector or geographical area, the returns may be more volatile than a more diversified fund. Emerging Markets can be more risky than developed markets. Subscriptions for shares or units in any Franklin Templeton Investments product or fund can be made only on the basis of the latest available audited annual report and the latest semi-annual report if published thereafter (or other offering document) for that product or fund which more fully describes the investment risks.
This website is intended to be of general interest only and does not constitute legal or tax advice nor is it an offer for shares or invitation to apply for shares of any of Franklin Templeton Investments’ fund ranges. Nothing in this website should be construed as investment advice. Franklin Templeton Investments has exercised professional care and diligence in the collection of information in this website. However, data from third party sources may have been used in its preparation and Franklin Templeton Investments has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Opinions expressed are the author’s at the publication date and they are subject to change without prior notice. Given the rapidly changing market environment, Franklin Templeton Investments disclaim responsibility for updating this material. Any research and analysis contained in this website has been procured by Franklin Templeton Investments for its own purposes and is provided to you only incidentally. Franklin Templeton Investments shall not be liable to any user of this website or to any other person or entity for the inaccuracy of information or any errors or omissions in its contents, regardless of the cause of such inaccuracy, error or omission.
Portfolio Holdings for Non-US Funds/Non-US Advisers - From time to time Franklin Templeton Resources Inc (FRI) and its subsidiaries, partnerships, joint ventures and related and affiliated business entities (“FTI”) may provide you with a partial listing of portfolio securities including but not limited to top contributors and detractors to portfolio performance owned by one or more non-US domiciled funds that are registered or passported with local regulatory authorities and are sponsored by FTI (each a “Fund” and together “Funds”) and any such additional information relating to the Fund(s) that may not otherwise be publicly disseminated. Such listing of portfolio securities and any other non-public information is subject to the following terms and conditions below and is herein referred to as “Holdings Information”.
You are an authorised representative of a bank, broker-dealer, insurance company, registered investment adviser or other professional client (together, “Financial Institutions”) engaged in business activities outside the United States (a “Non-US Adviser”) and the Financial Institution has authorised you to access and use the Holdings Information. You are deemed to have read, understood and accepted the terms and conditions and you further agree that all provisions of this Agreement are equally binding upon you and the Financial Institution. IF YOU ARE NOT AUTHORISED TO ACCESS HOLDINGS INFORMATION OR YOU DO NOT WANT TO BE BOUND BY THE TERMS OF THIS AGREEMENT YOU SHOULD NOT ACCEPT HOLDINGS INFORMATION.
You undertake to keep the Holdings Information strictly confidential, regardless of the Holdings Information form or whether the Holdings Information is marked or identified as proprietary or confidential. You also agree not to disclose or disseminate the Holdings Information to any third party and to treat the Holdings Information as nonpublic and proprietary, and you further acknowledge that the Holdings Information constitutes a valuable asset of FTI, the Funds and Fund shareholders. You recognise that adverse consequences may result for Fund shareholders if the Holdings Information is used for inappropriate trading purposes. In addition, FTI may reasonably request that you make available to FTI all research produced on the Funds.
You will not:
Purchase or sell any portfolio securities listed in the Holdings Information on the basis of any information contained in Holdings Information;
Trade against the Funds or knowingly engage in any trading practices that are adverse to FTI or the Funds on the basis of the Holdings Information; and
Trade in shares of any US registered investment company sponsored by FTI that is substantially similar to the Fund.
You will use your best efforts to take all appropriate action and otherwise satisfy your obligations under this Agreement and to prevent the misuse of the Holdings Information. You will immediately notify FTI if you learn of any use of the Holdings Information by any employees, agents or clients that would otherwise violate this Agreement. You acknowledge that damages alone would not be an adequate remedy for any breach of the provisions of this Agreement and, accordingly, without prejudice to any and all other rights or remedies, you acknowledge that FTI or any Fund or F-T Fund to which the Holdings Information pertains shall be entitled to the remedies of injunction, specific performance and other equitable relief for any threatened or actual breach of the provisions of this Agreement.
You shall not be bound by the provisions of confidentiality contained in this Agreement if such Holdings Information 1) is or becomes publicly known through no act or omission of the Financial Institution, its employees, agents or subcontractors; 2) is lawfully disclosed to you by a third party without restriction and without any obligation of confidentiality; 3) is required to be disclosed by any Governmental body, regulatory body (including without limitation any relevant securities exchange) or court of competent jurisdiction or otherwise pursuant to any statutory or regulatory obligation.
The Agreement shall remain in effect for so long as you access the Holdings Information from FTI. FT may terminate this Agreement immediately if this Agreement conflicts with any laws, rules or relevant regulatory interpretations. Upon termination, you shall continue to take reasonable measures to prevent the disclosure or dissemination of the Holdings Information. You acknowledge that the Holdings Information may be utilised for damaging purposes, such as duplicating FTI’s proprietary investment and trading strategies, techniques and methodologies. As a result, your nondisclosure obligations and the prohibition on your dissemination of the Holdings Information to any third party shall survive this Agreement’s termination. To the extent of any conflict between this Agreement and any other agreement between you and FTI, then this Agreement shall be deemed to constitute an amendment to such other agreement.
This Agreement may not be assigned by you, and you may not delegate its duties hereunder, without the prior written consent of FTI. All of the terms and provisions contained herein shall inure to the benefit of and shall be binding upon the parties hereto and their respective heirs, successors and assigns. Nothing contained in this Agreement shall be construed as creating any obligation or any expectation on the part of either party to enter into a business relationship with the other party, or an obligation to refrain from entering into a business relationship with any third party.
Nothing contained in this Agreement shall be construed as creating a joint venture, partnership or employment relationship between the parties, it being understood that the parties are independent contractors vis-à-vis one another. Except as specified herein, no party shall have the right, power or implied authority to create any obligation or duty, express or implied, on behalf of any other party hereto.
YOU SHALL INDEMNIFY AND HOLD ANY AND ALL FTI PERSONS HARMLESS AGAINST ANY AND ALL COSTS, EXPENSES, LOSSES, LIABILITIES, OBLIGATIONS, DAMAGES, PENALTIES TO WHICH ANY SUCH PARTY MAY BECOME SUBJECT INCLUDING REASONABLE LEGAL AND OTHER SUCH PROFESSIONAL FEES INCURRED IN INVESTIGATING AND DEFENDING OR APPEALING PENDING OR THREATENED CLAIMS, ACTIONS, SUITS, PROCEEDINGS, ARBITRATIONS, AMOUNTS PAID IN SETTLEMENT THEREOF (COLLECTIVELY “EXPENSES”) DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY ARISING OUT OF OR RELATING TO ANY BREACH OF THIS AGREEMENT SAVE WHERE SUCH EXPENSES RESULTED DIRECTLY FROM OUR GROSS NEGLIGENCE, FRAUD OR WILFUL MISCONDUCT.
The Agreement: (i) may be modified or supplemented by FTI at anytime upon reasonable notice to You; (ii) shall be binding upon and inure to the benefit of the successors and assigns of FTI and You; and (iii) shall be governed and construed in accordance with the laws of the United Kingdom.
Please read the Terms of Use Agreement and indicate your acceptance.
This website uses cookies. You can read about the cookies that we use here. By continuing to browse and not disabling these cookies you consent to our use of cookies.
Chinese New Year: Symbolism in the Year of the PigJan 31, 2019
On February 5, 2019, the Chinese New Year ushers in the Year of the Pig. Traditionally, the pig is the last animal represented in the 12-year Chinese astrological cycle.
Franklin Templeton Emerging Market Equity’s Chetan Sehgal and Andrew Ness consider how the characteristics of the Chinese zodiac’s pig might relate to some of the themes on emerging market investors’ minds in 2019.
Chetan Sehgal, CFA Senior Managing Director, Director of Portfolio Management, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity
Andrew Ness, ASIP Portfolio Manager Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity
End of the Astrological Cycle, Not the Economic Cycle
The Year of the Pig is traditionally the last in the Chinese astrological cycle. Its arrival in 2019 coincides with concern among some observers that the current global economic cycle is coming to an end.
That’s not our interpretation. Notwithstanding some signs of slower global growth, notably from China, we think the current cycle may have more room to run.
After years of heady growth, China now faces a mix of challenges that threaten to curb its momentum as trade tensions collide with China’s efforts to restructure its economy. Amid slowing growth, we think there could be greater dispersion in corporate earnings that will ultimately sift out the winners from the losers in all markets.
Our near-term outlook is cautious. We don’t foresee a hard landing as we think China’s state-directed system offers a measure of confidence in its ability to execute policies. So far, we think China has been able to balance economic growth with structural reforms.
The Pig as a Symbol of Wealth
The expansion of the middle classes has been probably the most influential demographic change in emerging markets in recent years and has underpinned much of the growth in those economies. In 2019, we expect growing domestic consumer demand to be a contributing factor to emerging markets’ resilience in the face of external headwinds.
Growing middle-class populations and increasing affluence should continue to drive “premiumization” in the medium to long term, spurring demand for high-end products in emerging markets. That is, we believe companies with strong premium-brand positioning and superior products should see sustainable and higher-than-average industry growth levels in the years to come.
Especially impressive is a new generation of mega companies that have found success through consumer-focused innovation. They are keenly attuned to the needs of a rising middle class that is eager to spend, and they are devoting their know-how to fulfil these needs. Hyper-competitive companies have leapfrogged established business models, in many cases overtaking their Western peers.
An Industrious Revolution
Some earlier readings of the Chinese Zodiac origin story blame the pig’s late place in the astrological cycle on its laziness. Today, Chinese astrologers tend to emphasize the pig’s industriousness.
As we survey the investment landscape at the beginning of the Year of the Pig, the growing industriousness of emerging market companies stands out strongly.
Emerging-market companies have emerged as innovators in technology. In many cases, new technologies have higher adoption rates in emerging markets as no existing infrastructure is in place.
Across various industries, China has become the innovator to watch. For instance, rapid improvements in lithium-ion battery production have helped turn the country into the world’s largest electric vehicle market.
China’s progress in the automobile industry is in part due to the government’s drive to promote the country as the world leader in green energy. In 2017, the Chinese government pledged to invest US$360 billion in renewable energy by 2020 while scrapping plans to build coal-fired power plants.
Since then, Chinese authorities have already exceeded official targets for clean energy sources. In our view, the country’s focus on tackling pollution, by creating the next generation of smart cars, also plays into China’s broader strategy in becoming a leader in innovation.
In China’s pharmaceutical industry, government policies favoring the development of novel drugs over generics have encouraged local companies to scale up research and development expenditures. This could sow the seed for a pipeline of groundbreaking treatments from Chinese drug makers.
Such companies have become emblems of China’s “new economy,” which centers on technology and consumption. We view China’s consumer market as a force to be reckoned with. It has become the second largest in the world after a breakneck pace of growth in the past 20 years, and we believe the uptrend can continue.
Cautious Optimism
We think China’s longer-term prospects will hinge greatly on how well it handles its challenges. There are also broader systemic tensions it needs to confront. If China’s rebalancing efforts result in an economy that is sturdier and more sustainable, in our view, it would almost certainly continue to be a structural growth driver for emerging markets in the decades to come. We are watching developments closely.
The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.
Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton Investments (“FTI”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FTI accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FTI affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.
Important Legal Information
All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets’ smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.
On February 5, 2019, the Chinese New Year ushers in the Year of the Pig. Traditionally, the pig is the last animal represented in the 12-year Chinese astrological cycle.
Franklin Templeton Emerging Market Equity’s Chetan Sehgal and Andrew Ness consider how the characteristics of the Chinese zodiac’s pig might relate to some of the themes on emerging market investors’ minds in 2019.
Chetan Sehgal, CFA
Senior Managing Director,
Director of Portfolio Management,
Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity
Andrew Ness, ASIP
Portfolio Manager
Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity
End of the Astrological Cycle, Not the Economic Cycle
The Year of the Pig is traditionally the last in the Chinese astrological cycle. Its arrival in 2019 coincides with concern among some observers that the current global economic cycle is coming to an end.
That’s not our interpretation. Notwithstanding some signs of slower global growth, notably from China, we think the current cycle may have more room to run.
After years of heady growth, China now faces a mix of challenges that threaten to curb its momentum as trade tensions collide with China’s efforts to restructure its economy. Amid slowing growth, we think there could be greater dispersion in corporate earnings that will ultimately sift out the winners from the losers in all markets.
Our near-term outlook is cautious. We don’t foresee a hard landing as we think China’s state-directed system offers a measure of confidence in its ability to execute policies. So far, we think China has been able to balance economic growth with structural reforms.
The Pig as a Symbol of Wealth
The expansion of the middle classes has been probably the most influential demographic change in emerging markets in recent years and has underpinned much of the growth in those economies. In 2019, we expect growing domestic consumer demand to be a contributing factor to emerging markets’ resilience in the face of external headwinds.
Growing middle-class populations and increasing affluence should continue to drive “premiumization” in the medium to long term, spurring demand for high-end products in emerging markets. That is, we believe companies with strong premium-brand positioning and superior products should see sustainable and higher-than-average industry growth levels in the years to come.
Especially impressive is a new generation of mega companies that have found success through consumer-focused innovation. They are keenly attuned to the needs of a rising middle class that is eager to spend, and they are devoting their know-how to fulfil these needs. Hyper-competitive companies have leapfrogged established business models, in many cases overtaking their Western peers.
An Industrious Revolution
Some earlier readings of the Chinese Zodiac origin story blame the pig’s late place in the astrological cycle on its laziness. Today, Chinese astrologers tend to emphasize the pig’s industriousness.
As we survey the investment landscape at the beginning of the Year of the Pig, the growing industriousness of emerging market companies stands out strongly.
Emerging-market companies have emerged as innovators in technology. In many cases, new technologies have higher adoption rates in emerging markets as no existing infrastructure is in place.
Across various industries, China has become the innovator to watch. For instance, rapid improvements in lithium-ion battery production have helped turn the country into the world’s largest electric vehicle market.
China’s progress in the automobile industry is in part due to the government’s drive to promote the country as the world leader in green energy. In 2017, the Chinese government pledged to invest US$360 billion in renewable energy by 2020 while scrapping plans to build coal-fired power plants.
Since then, Chinese authorities have already exceeded official targets for clean energy sources. In our view, the country’s focus on tackling pollution, by creating the next generation of smart cars, also plays into China’s broader strategy in becoming a leader in innovation.
In China’s pharmaceutical industry, government policies favoring the development of novel drugs over generics have encouraged local companies to scale up research and development expenditures. This could sow the seed for a pipeline of groundbreaking treatments from Chinese drug makers.
Such companies have become emblems of China’s “new economy,” which centers on technology and consumption. We view China’s consumer market as a force to be reckoned with. It has become the second largest in the world after a breakneck pace of growth in the past 20 years, and we believe the uptrend can continue.
Cautious Optimism
We think China’s longer-term prospects will hinge greatly on how well it handles its challenges. There are also broader systemic tensions it needs to confront. If China’s rebalancing efforts result in an economy that is sturdier and more sustainable, in our view, it would almost certainly continue to be a structural growth driver for emerging markets in the decades to come. We are watching developments closely.
The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are solely the views of the author(s), are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy.
Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton Investments (“FTI”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FTI accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FTI affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.
Important Legal Information
All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets’ smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.